This election is already rigged against Kamala Harris!

Sure, it's a cold day in Hell when I'd ever agree with Donald Trump on anything. But I must admit, he's right about this. He's right when he says the election is rigged. Except he's got it backward.

Yes, the 2024 election is rigged. But it's not rigged against Donald Trump. It's actually rigged in his favor - because of something we should have gotten rid of a long time ago, but still haven't. It's rigged against Kamala Harris - because of the Electoral College.

We may be heading to another electoral disaster. A repeat of the presidential elections of 2000 and 2016, when the candidate who won the popular vote - by far! - did not win the White House. Already twice in this century, the winning candidate actually lost because of the Electoral College. Nothing could be more anti-democratic, with a small "d."

As Larry Sabato, head of the University of Virginia's highly regarded Center for Politics told me on my podcast (BillPressPod.com) this week, Kamala Harris is way ahead in the popular vote. She'll crush Donald Trump in the number of total votes cast. But she could still end up losing to Trump in the only count that matters: the Electoral College.

In today's political universe, winning the Electoral College comes down to so-called "battleground" states. The list of such states can change. Ohio was once considered a battleground state; now it's reliably red. So was Virginia, but now it's more dependably purple, if not blue. But all analysts agree that this year's "battleground states" are seven: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. That's where the election will be won or lost. That's where the candidates will be spending most of their time. It's almost a waste of their time to be campaigning anywhere else.

And the reason nobody's willing to call this race a slam dunk, despite Harris' big lead in the popular vote, is because, at this point, the polls in those seven states show Harris and Trump neck and neck. In the latest poll released this week by the New York Times, for example, Trump leads by just one point in Arizona and Georgia; Harris leads by one point in North Carolina; and she leads by two points in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Not enough for either side to feel good about.

Which means we're looking at a replay of 2020 where, despite the fact that 159 million Americans voted for president, the election was decided by the slimmest of margins in the battleground states. Case in point: Joe Biden edged out Donald Trump in Arizona and picked up that state's 11 electoral votes by only a 10,457 vote advantage.

The problem is, that affront to democracy - where a handful of voters in a handful of states decide the election for 330 million Americans - will continue, and only get worse, until we get rid of the Electoral College. At which point most people simply give up and say it's impossible because it would take a Constitutional Amendment.

Wrong! There's a much easier way to get rid of the Electoral College. Well, not to get rid of, but to get around it. It's called the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact - an agreement among states to award all its electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the national popular vote. Introduced in 2006, it has already been adopted by 17 states and the District of Columbia.

As of September 2024, the National Popular Vote is the law in six small states: Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Rhode Island, Vermont, and the District of Columbia; nine medium-size states: Colorado, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, and Washington; and three big states: California, Illinois, and New York.

Added up, that's 209 electoral votes, just 61 votes shy - or 77 percent- of the magic 270 total necessary to win the presidency. So far there are no deep red states on board, but any combination of Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Nevada (6), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), and Alaska (3) would end the dominance of the Electoral College.

There are many steps necessary to save our democracy, but after electing Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, one of the most important is to persuade another group of state legislatures to adopt the National Popular Vote - so we can dump the Electoral College once and for all and unite behind the principle that whichever candidate gets the most votes wins the election. How quaint.

(C)2024 Tribune Content Agency, LLC. 

 Best thing for Republican Party: For Trump to lose big

It seems like it's been dragging on for three years - which it has! - but now, with Labor Day behind us, the 2024 presidential campaign is officially underway. And it's a totally different campaign than any of us expected, just two months ago.

So much has changed in so short a time. It was only on June 27 that Joe Biden totally blew his debate with Donald Trump. It was only on July 21 that Biden announced his decision to step down and pass the torch to Kamala Harris. And, since then, in just six short weeks, the world has turned upside down.

Instead of embarking on a rushed, divisive primary, Democrats quickly rallied behind Harris. She proved to be an outstanding candidate. She shot up in the polls. She made an excellent choice in selecting Tim Walz as her running mate. She gave a great acceptance speech at the convention. She's generated more excitement in the Democratic Party since Barack Obama's first campaign. And she now leads in every demographic group except old white men.

Which leads to a few observations on the state of the race today.

One. If the biggest problem for Democrats six weeks ago was despair, the biggest problem today is overconfidence. Kamala Harris may be slowly climbing up in the polls, but this campaign is far, far, from over. No matter how long the honeymoon lasts, no matter how many Republicans like Liz Cheney endorse her, this race is still too close to call.

God knows why, but some 40 percent to 45 percent of Americans will vote for Donald Trump, no matter what he says or does. When you factor in amnesia about what a disaster Trump's presidency was, plus bias against a woman, especially a Black woman, Kamala Harris could still lose this race and Donald Trump, as impossible as that is to believe, could still win it.

Which only underscores the most important message for Democrats that came out of the Chicago convention, first stressed by Michelle Obama and then picked up by every speaker that followed: Don't fret, don't worry, don't complain. Get off your butt and " Do something!" Kamala Harris can only win in November if every Democrat or non-Trump Republican talks to every friend, knocks on every door, makes every phone call, and writes every check possible between now and November 5.

Two. As I argued in last week's column, this election is not going to be waged over differences in policy, it's going to be decided on how people feel about two different people. Or, more to the point, how people feel about Donald Trump. Period. And, on that score, there was good news this week. The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Kamala Harris with a 46 percent favorable rating, compared to Trump's 33 percent. Even more troublesome for Trump: He's 25 percent underwater in favorability. While 33 percent like him, 58 percent of Americans say they don't like him - which is stunning for someone in the spotlight for the last eight years.

Of course, that has its downside. Confronted with those dismal favorability ratings, Trump campaign advisers privately admit they know they can't make Trump more likable. So their only hope is to make Kamala Harris more unlikable - through personal insults, lies, invective, and smears. It's the standard Trump playbook. It's going to get ugly.

Three. The most interesting new wrinkle on 2024 this week came from Jonathan Martin, politics bureau chief at Politico. In recent conversations with many Republican leaders, all publicly Trump-supporters, Martin was surprised to discover one common theme: in order to move beyond Trump and repair the Republican Party, they all privately hoped that Trump would lose!

"The best possible outcome in November for the future of the Republican Party is for former President Donald Trump to lose and lose soundly," Martin wrote. "GOP leaders won't tell you that on the record. I just did." Note: They believe it's not only important that Harris win, but that she win big. The more decisively Harris wins the popular vote and electoral college, they told Martin, the less political oxygen Trump will have to reprise his 2020 antics; and, more importantly, the faster Republicans can begin building a post-Trump party. May their dreams come true.

Four. Sixty days is a long way to go in politics. Anything could still happen. Next week's debate could be a game-changer. But at this point, looking at the direction things are going, it's better to be Kamala Harris than Donald Trump.

(C)2024 Tribune Content Agency, LLC. 

We don't need any stinking position papers

As proud as I am to be part of the national press corps, at times I'm embarrassed by some of the nutty stuff I see or read in the media by people who should know better.

After the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump, for example, it was widely asserted as an article of faith that the election was, in effect, already over. Nope! Later, when President Joe Biden stepped aside, it was almost universally proclaimed that Democrats could never accept any other nominee for president without an ugly, crowded, last-minute primary. Nope! And how much ink was spilled predicting that, because of all the protesters, Chicago 2024 would prove a repeat of Chicago 1968? Nope!

Now here's the nuttiest theory of all - which, in some fashion, is standard fodder today on every media outlet. We've all heard it. It goes like this: Kamala Harris is doing great so far. She's drawing huge crowds. She's raised over half a billion dollars. She's leading in the polls. She's generating great vibes. But, but, but (here's the kicker): Good vibes aren't enough. Now she has to issue a detailed, 25-point position paper on every policy under the sun.

No, no, no. Don't be fooled. Recognize that seemingly high-minded demand for what it really is. It's nothing but a trap set by right-wing media in particular, and the media in general, who only want the Harris/Walz campaign to issue their own version of Project 2025 so they can dig into it, pick it apart, demand even more specifics, and drive Kamala Harris down a forever rabbit hole of nit-picking.

Let's be honest. Nobody reads position papers but pesky reporters and opposing campaign staffers. The idea that any still undecided voters out there are waiting to make up their minds until Harris details in excruciating detail how she would calibrate which tariffs to impose on which products from which countries, or the precise number of immigrants seeking asylum she feels would be necessary before she shut down the southern border, is absurd.

In any presidential campaign, policy is decided on the macro, not the micro, level. And on the macro level, the policy differences between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are vast, clear, and already well-known.

On climate change, Harris, like Biden, is committed to doing everything we can to slow down or reverse it; Trump calls it a hoax. On the economy, Harris, again like Biden, wants to grow the middle class; Trump wants to give millionaires and billionaires another tax cut. On reproductive freedom, Harris is America's pro-choice leader; Trump brags about killing Roe v. Wade. On crime, former prosecutor Harris believes in holding criminals responsible; Trump promises to pardon those convicted criminals who, summoned and directed by him, attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. On Ukraine, Harris is for continuing to support a democratic Ukraine; Trump says give Putin whatever he wants. What more do you need to know?

This whole demand for a pile of position papers is nuts because, in the end, this election - more than any other presidential election in our lifetime - will be decided, not on where the candidates stand, but on who the candidates are. And here, again, we already know the vast differences between the two.

Kamala Harris is a former prosecutor; Donald Trump is a convicted felon. Kamala Harris specialized in prosecuting men accused of sexual assault; Donald Trump has been accused of sexually assaulting 26 women, found liable for sexually assaulting E. Jean Carroll and fined $88.3 million for defaming her. Kamala Harris is an experienced public servant, having served as San Francisco district attorney, California attorney general, United States senator from California, and vice president of the United States; Donald Trump has held only one office, a failed and disastrous presidency. Kamala Harris is a person of undisputed moral character; Donald Trump is a proven racist, sexist, narcissist, bully and pathological liar.

Here's one other key difference. Harris is 59; Trump is 78, the oldest presidential nominee in history. Everything about the Harris campaign is looking forward: a new face, new team and new beginning. Everything about the Trump campaign is looking backward: still refusing to accept results of the 2020 election, seeking revenge on political opponents, pulling out of NATO, reversing all progress on climate change.

In the end, this campaign is about the future and character, and the choice is clear. We know all there is to know. We don't need no stinking position papers. We're not going back.

(C)2024 Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Greetings from Chicago and, as Rep. Jamie Raskin called it, "The Democracy Convention."

My first convention, as a staffer for then-governor and presidential candidate Jerry Brown, was in 1976. As a delegate, volunteer, or reporter, I'd attended every Democratic convention since, but I decided to skip this one - until Joe Biden stepped down and Kamala Harris stepped up. Then I changed my mind. And I'm so glad I did.

Of all the conventions I've been to, this 2024 convention was by far the most exciting, most well-staged, and most impactful. Not to mention one for the history books, with the nomination of the first woman of color to lead a major party's presidential ticket.

And what a contrast with the sad show we saw in Milwaukee a month ago. As California Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis told the California delegation, "It's like they went to a funeral, but we came to a wedding." The Republican convention was filled with hate speech, name-calling, whining, fear, and lies - all focused on the past. This Democratic convention was just the opposite.

It began, appropriately, with a tribute to President Biden. He's probably the most underestimated politician in history, but no longer. Biden will now always be remembered and celebrated, not only as the most consequential one-term president ever, but especially for his selfless decision to sacrifice his own position as the most powerful person on the planet in order to save our democracy from the danger of Donald Trump. "Thank you, Joe."

And now the torch has been passed. And not just to Kamala Harris. One of the things that struck me most about this convention - and, again, a stark contrast to Milwaukee - was the wealth and breadth of young talent on display. You could not imagine a more impressive group of young political leaders than Josh Shapiro, JB Pritzker, Andy Beshear, Wes Moore, Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, and Gretchen Whitmer - all of whom were given their moment to shine at the podium. Here in Chicago, the Democratic Party did not just talk about the future. It put the future on display.

That future starts, of course, with Kamala Harris. Over the last four weeks, any doubts about her abilities as a candidate disappeared. She generated more enthusiasm, rallied bigger crowds, and raised more money than any candidate ever in so short a time. And she capped it off with a convention acceptance speech that was truly masterful.

In a word, she "nailed" it. Harris struck all the right notes: telling her compelling personal story; warning of the dangers of another four years of Trump; taking on the major issues of the economy, climate change, gun safety, and reproductive rights; promising a strong defense and continued support of NATO and Ukraine; and pledging to be a president that serves and fights for all Americans. In one phrase, she captured what this campaign is all about: "We're not going back." And she did it all with a smile that lit up the entire convention center.

Harris' first decision, of course, was her best so far: tapping Tim Walz as her running mate. Walz is just what the Democratic Party needs: not just somebody who expresses support for the middle class, but somebody who IS the middle class. He is a good neighbor, high school teacher, veteran, hunter, and football coach who exudes family values and lives by what most Americans accept as our golden rule: "Mind your own damned business!" Tim Walz is the real deal; someone every American can relate to.

But here's what struck me most about this convention. Thanks to Harris and Walz, filling the air in Chicago were two words not normally associated with Democrats, at least not for a long time. Those words are "Joy" and "Freedom."

The joy is real. You can see it in the way Harris and Walz campaign. They're having a good time. So are the thousands showing up for their rallies. So are more and more Americans, as they catch the joyful vibes of the Democratic ticket.

And the freedom Democrats talk about is real: the freedom to read whatever book you want; to love and marry whomever you want; to control your own body; to cast your vote - all freedoms Donald Trump wants to eliminate. The Democratic Party has recaptured freedom. It's now Democrats who are delivering freedom and Republicans who are denying it. That is revolutionary.

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz did more than unite the Democratic Party this week. They reinvented it. For the better.

Credit: Tribune Content Agency 

It's always fun to be in San Francisco. It was especially fun last weekend when, during a news conference at Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump stunned California political reporters with his account of a near-death experience in a helicopter with former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown, where Brown never stopped trashing his former girlfriend, Kamala Harris.

Within minutes, Brown, tracked down by the San Francisco Chronicle's Joe Garofoli at Sam's Grill, refuted the entire story. He'd never crash-landed in a helicopter with Trump. He'd never been in a helicopter with Trump, period. And he hadn't trashed Kamala Harris.

At first, reporters thought Trump might have been talking about a 2018 helicopter ride with former Governor Jerry Brown. Then it turned out Trump was actually remembering a helicopter trip from New York to Atlantic City he took early in the '90s with former Los Angeles City Councilman Nate Holden, which did experience engine problems.

Trump got it all wrong. He confused a Black Willie Brown with a white Jerry Brown; a Black Willie Brown with a Black Nate Holden; California with Atlantic City; and just made up stuff about Kamala Harris. Imagine how Republicans - and the media - would have demanded invoking the 25 th Amendment had Joe Biden made such a string of misstatements.

But it's wrong to dismiss Trump's helicopter fantasy as simply a temporary lapse of memory. It's much more serious than that. It's not the first example of crazy things Trump has said recently. It's the latest in a string of statements that, even for Trump, are completely bonkers.

They include Trump's claims that an angry Biden will arrive at the Chicago convention and take the Democratic nomination back from Kamala Harris; that it's "unconstitutional" for Harris to run for president; and, of course, that Harris is not Black, but only started pretending to be Black when she decided to run for political office.

Trump also continues his bizarre obsession with crowd-size. He falsely bragged that he had a bigger crowd at the Ellipse on January 6 (50,000) than Martin Luther King Jr. enjoyed at the Lincoln Memorial for his "I Have a Dream speech" (250,000). And he falsely claimed that a crowd that showed up to greet Harris at the Detroit airport simply didn't exist. "There was nobody at the plane, and she "A.I.'d it," Trump declared. Which came as news to the 15,000 fans on the tarmac.

Every time he opens his mouth, Trump spews out another mind-blowing assertion. He insists that Biden sent the FBI into Mar-a-Lago with orders to assassinate him. He accuses Biden of faking Covid a couple weeks ago. He accuses Democrats of wanting to kill babies after birth. He claims that Venezuela is releasing its convicts from prison and sending them to the United States, in a move worked out with the Biden administration. And, of course, this is the same man who still insists at every rally that he, not Joe Biden, won the 2020 election.

There's no other way to say it. Donald Trump is not funny. He's not clever. He's not confused. He's sick. He's mentally unhinged. And it's getting worse by the day.

In 2017, 27 leading psychiatrists and mental health experts published "The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump," in which they warned that Trump was not mentally fit to be president. Dr. John D. Gartner, clinical psychologist at Johns Hopkins University Medical School for 28 years, summed up their findings: "Trump is bad, mad, and getting worse. He evinces the most destructive and dangerous collection of psychiatric symptoms possible for a leader."

On my podcast In April, Dr. Gartner told me Trump had rapidly and markedly deteriorated in the seven years since. In 2017, Gartner noted, he was talking about intermittent examples of mental collapse. "Now," he said, "he is getting worse. He can't get through a whole rally without revealing himself."

How bad is it? Even worse than you think. "I am certain that if he is re-elected," Gartner warns, "he will become cognitively incapacitated. There's no way at the rate of deterioration t hat he's showing that he can make it through four more years without falling off the cliff."

That's the truth about Trump, the dangerous reality that the media should be talking about every day. It's time they stop treating Trump like just any other normal candidate - he's not! - and start covering him for what he is: an old man, the oldest man who ever ran for president, who's already mentally ill and steadily getting worse.

(C)2024 Tribune Content Agency, LLC.